Viva Energy Group (VEA) Investor Day 2026 summary

Strategy and value creation

• After strengthening and integrating the business over the past three years, strategy remains broadly unchanged; the next phase focuses on execution and unlocking potential, followed by new earnings beyond three years.

• Value thesis: more consistent refining returns, resilient C&I earnings and higher-quality retail growth, with potential valuation re-rating as earnings quality improves over three to four years.

• Australian fuel demand share has risen to 30% from ~25% at the Shell-to-Viva transition through acquisitions and organic growth.

• Retail execution is more selective and returns-led, prioritising disciplined site-level returns, unified platforms and non-fuel earnings growth.

Energy and infrastructure

• FSSP was updated in March 2026; the refining commitment runs to 30 June 2028 with an option to extend to 30 June 2030. Discussions seek a post-2030 agreement to support investment certainty and sustainable returns.

• Near-term refining outlook remains strong after stellar margins; global asset damage supports margins, with diesel and jet demand stronger than gasoline.

• Refinery priorities are safe, reliable operations and margin capture; the alkylation-unit outage reduces production by ~10%, with replacement choices dependent on greater FSSP certainty.

• National network includes 25 import terminals and ~2.2bn litres of storage; 80% of domestic fuel requirements are imported, and demand is expected to rise to 2030 as diesel and jet growth offsets declining petrol.

• Multi-year refinery investment targets modernisation and reliability; Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel upgrades were completed within budget and ahead of regulatory changes.

Commercial and industrial

• AUD 500m earnings target, set in 2023, is expected to be reached early; exceptional 2026 benefits will not repeat, with focus on sustainable, repeatable earnings followed by GDP-plus growth.

• Growth over the past five years came ~40% from existing customers, 40%-45% from new customers and ~15% from selected acquisitions.

• C&I has evolved from a fuels supplier into a larger, more diversified integrated solutions business, supporting resilient earnings through customer relationships, broad sector exposure and integrated supply-chain capability.

• Network expansion since 2023 includes marine entry in Brisbane, operations at more than 100 airports and airfields, and a Pilbara lubricants facility; organic growth remains the priority.

• Priorities include supply-chain resilience, minimum stockholding obligations, lower supply costs and growth across aviation, marine, resources and roads; investment is disciplined and acquisitions selective.