Yara International (YAR) Arctic Securities Conference presentation summary

Market developments and price trends

• Fertilizer and raw material prices have shown significant volatility since the war, with ammonia up 124% and sulfur up 135% from February 2026 levels.

• Urea and potash prices remained stable, while phosphates increased by 25% over the same period.

• Grain prices for corn and wheat are projected to remain elevated through December 2026.

Regional supply and trade dynamics

• India began the new agricultural year with strong urea imports, leading to increased stock levels.

• China is expected to export 5 million tons of urea in 2025, maintaining a steady monthly export pattern.

• The Middle East remains a critical hub, with the Strait of Hormuz accounting for about one-third of global urea trade and significant shares of LNG, sulfur, and ammonia.

Affordability and application rates

• The cereal-to-urea price index rebounded strongly in June and July 2026 due to lower urea prices, improving affordability for farmers.

• Increased affordability is expected to drive higher urea application rates in the coming months.