Yara International (YAR) Arctic Securities Conference presentation summary

Market dynamics and geopolitical impacts

• Middle East conflict affects key fertilizer trade routes, with 33% of global urea and 22% of ammonia passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Around 20% of global LNG and 45% of global sulfur also transit this region, highlighting supply risk.

Price trends and commodity movements

• Urea prices (FOB Egypt) and EU natural gas prices remain volatile, with EU gas at 55.3 EUR/MWh as of March 2026.

• Urea (granular) FOB Arab Gulf prices fluctuated between $300–$500/tonne over 2024–2026.

• DAP FOB Morocco and MOP FOB Vancouver prices showed significant movement, reflecting global supply-demand shifts.

• Sulphur FOB Arab Gulf prices also experienced notable changes during the period.

Regional supply and demand developments

• India imported 8.9 million tons of urea from April to January, 4 million tons more than the previous season.

• Indian urea imports and stock levels are closely tracked, with tender volumes and monthly stocks indicating strong demand.

• China exported nearly 5 million tons of urea in 2025, despite an 8% drop in domestic supply.