Yara International (YAR) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Pre-quarter information and disclosure approach

• Publishes pre-quarter information package at the start of the quiet period to ensure equal access to relevant data for modeling the upcoming quarter.

• Provides guidance and targets for specific activity areas, not total financial results.

• Shares an outside-in model estimating quarterly EBITDA based on key market prices and published sensitivities.

• Outside-in model excludes quarter-specific adjustments but includes qualitative comments on key considerations.

• Updated sensitivities reflect current operations and CBAM impact on nitrogen in Europe.

Market developments and price dynamics

• Urea prices rose sharply in early 2026 due to seasonal buying in the US and Europe, Indian tenders, and Chinese export restrictions.

• Middle East conflict in March caused a ~50% surge in urea prices as trade through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted.

• Cereal prices remained low, limiting further upside for urea prices and reducing affordability.

• Record EU urea imports in December followed by reduced imports in early 2026 due to CBAM uncertainty.

• US and India showed strong demand, while gas shortages affected production in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Key operational and financial considerations

• Strong start to the season in Europe with significant pre-buying ahead of CBAM implementation.

• Premiums entering 2026 were strong but pressured by rising commodity fertilizer prices and lower crop prices.

• Fixed costs for 1Q26 are lower year-over-year, reflecting achievement of cost reduction targets.

• Updated sensitivities published in March 2026 to reflect new market realities.

• 2026 capex guidance set at $1.2 billion, with higher maintenance capex expected later in the year.