Yara International (YAR) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Pre-quarter information and disclosure approach

• Releases a pre-quarter information package at the start of the quiet period, providing all relevant external data for modeling the upcoming quarter.

• Does not provide total financial guidance but may offer guidance or targets for specific activities and publishes key price and currency sensitivities.

• Discloses an outside-in EBITDA model based on market prices and published sensitivities, excluding quarter-specific adjustments.

• Provides qualitative comments on key considerations for the quarter based on previously disclosed information.

• Emphasizes that the outside-in model is not a financial results guide, as actual outcomes may differ due to internal and external factors.

Market prices, sensitivities, and operational impacts

• Significant volatility in urea and ammonia prices due to Middle East conflict and Hormuz Strait closure, causing regional price spreads and demand rationing.

• Urea prices peaked in late April 2026, driven by seasonal demand and a large India tender, then declined as buying slowed in May.

• China resumed urea exports with quotas for June-August shipments.

• Gas prices and currency fluctuations are key cost drivers, with updated sensitivities reflecting CBAM effects and current operations.

• Outages at Pilbara and Belle Plaine plants expected to reduce volumes by 150kt urea and 140kt ammonia, with a negative EBITDA impact of $100–150 million at 2Q price levels.

Key considerations and financial drivers

• Strong deliveries in Europe in late 2025 and early 2026 due to CBAM-triggered pre-buying.

• Fixed cost reduction program achieved, lowering year-over-year fixed costs for 2026.

• Premiums for nitrates and NPKs are under pressure due to high commodity prices and low crop prices, with volatility in nitrogen, MOP, and DAP prices.

• Phosphate upgrading margins mainly influenced by DAP prices; sulphur cost increases impact only part of NPK production.

• No EU ETS cost expected for 2Q 2026 due to surplus quotas held at zero cost.