Carlsberg Group (CARL) investor relations material

Financial guidance and growth algorithm

• Targets 4–6% organic revenue growth, with about one-third from volume and two-thirds from revenue per hectoliter improvements, driven by premiumization, category mix, and disciplined pricing.

• Aims to restore gross margin to 47–49% (including Britvic), funded by procurement and supply chain efficiencies, and to keep SG&A flat as a percentage of revenue.

• Marketing investment is set to reach about 8.5% of revenue (adjusted for Britvic), with CapEx at 6–7% of revenue, trending toward the lower end as integration progresses.

• Focuses on compounding operating profit growth ahead of revenue, with a 50% payout ratio and resumption of share buybacks once leverage is below 2.5x.

• Leverage target is to be below 2.5x by 2027, using both organic cash flow and potential asset disposals to accelerate deleveraging.

Supply chain, cost discipline, and funding strategy

• Implements a multi-pronged cost program: value engineering (VIPEX), procurement optimization, and waste reduction in production and logistics.

• Centralized best practices and digital tools drive efficiency, with local execution and benchmarking across sites to lift performance.

• Maintains a strong focus on working capital, aiming to keep trade working capital at around -20% of revenue, with targeted improvements in newly acquired businesses.

• Performance management is embedded in monthly business rhythms, with clear incentives tied to supply chain savings, deleveraging, and growth culture.

• Funding strategy supports increased marketing and commercial investments while delivering compounding earnings and cash flow growth.

Integration of Britvic and portfolio impact

• Britvic integration changes the P&L shape: soft drinks now comprise 30% of revenue, slightly lowering group gross margin and marketing-to-revenue ratios.

• Synergies from Britvic are expected to provide a one-off SG&A benefit, with ongoing discipline to maintain flat SG&A as a percentage of revenue.

• Working capital improvements are targeted for Britvic, though structural differences may limit full convergence with legacy beer operations.

• Revenue synergies in the UK are expected to be accretive, with incremental margins above the current average, driven by multi-beverage cross-selling and channel expansion.

• Delivering cost synergies from Britvic acquisition, with GBP 110m expected by October 2025, and operating profit contribution of GBP 250m by 2026.