Chevron (CVX) investor relations material

Financial guidance and shareholder returns

• Free cash flow and earnings per share are projected to grow over 10% annually through 2030, targeting $29 billion free cash flow at $70 Brent, supported by disciplined capital allocation and a resilient, diversified asset base.

• Annual capital expenditure guidance is reduced to $18–21 billion through 2030, with capex/dividend breakeven maintained below $50 Brent and affiliate capex at $1–2 billion per year.

• Share buybacks are expected at $10–20 billion annually at $60–80 Brent, representing 3–6% of shares outstanding per year, with a plan to return over 45% of current market cap to shareholders over five years.

• Dividend growth remains a top priority, with a 25-year average annual increase of 7% and a 6% CAGR over the past decade, outpacing most peers.

• Structural cost reduction target is raised to $3–4 billion in annual run-rate savings by 2026, driven by divestments, organizational changes, and technology adoption.

Portfolio strategy and operational updates

• Upstream production is guided to grow at a 2–3% CAGR through 2030, with margin expansion from higher oil weighting, cost reductions, and improved entitlements.

• Portfolio reshaped with production up 40% and capital spending down nearly 40% over the past decade, emphasizing capital efficiency and high-grading.

• Major projects include expansion in the Permian, DJ Basin, Bakken, Guyana, Australia LNG, and the Eastern Mediterranean, with Hess synergies target raised to $1.5 billion.

• Asset sales of $1–2 billion per year are expected through 2030, with a $10–15 billion divestment target by 2028 and $9 billion already achieved.

• Institutionalized capital discipline ensures only the highest-return projects are funded, with rigorous cross-segment vetting and a focus on minimum viable solutions.

Operational performance and technology

• AI and digital tools, including the Apollo platform and digital twins, are being scaled across operations, targeting billions in annual value by decade’s end and optimizing asset performance.

• Permian Basin production plateau is expected through 2040, with capital spending declining and advanced chemical treatments delivering 10% recovery uplift.

• Downstream and chemicals are expected to deliver over $4 billion in annual free cash flow at mid-cycle margins, with new capacity in the US and Qatar enhancing competitiveness and two major chemicals projects starting up in 2027.

• Power business is advancing with a 2.5 GW gas-fired project in Texas, targeting mid-teen returns and supporting data center growth, with potential expansion to 5 GW and the first AI data center power project in West Texas by 2027.

• Leading positions in U.S. natural gas, refining, and chemicals are reinforced by new projects and market expansion.