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O-I Glass (OI) investor relations material
O-I Glass Citigroup 2025 Basic Materials Conference summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Strategic transformation and operational initiatives
Launched Fit-to-Win program to address inflated cost base, aiming to remove $650 million in costs and restore competitiveness across three horizons, with significant progress expected by 2025 and expansion plans from 2028 onward.
Targeting $1.45 billion EBITDA by 2027 (30% improvement, 8% CAGR), with free cash flow above 5% of sales and economic returns 2% above cost of capital.
Fit-to-Win has exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings set to double in 2025 versus 2024 and aspirations for $1.65 billion EBITDA and 7% free cash flow by 2029.
Permanent closure of 13% of capacity to match demand, with most closures completed by Q1 2025 and restructuring cash outflows expected to end by mid-2025.
Enhanced supply chain visibility and forecast accuracy, improving from 50% to 68% in the past 6-8 months, with further gains targeted.
Financial performance and guidance
2025 earnings guidance raised to $1.55-$1.65 per share, driven by Fit-to-Win benefits and moderated net price headwinds, despite a 2% sales volume decline.
Fit-to-Win benefits for 2024 increased to $275-$300 million, ahead of schedule, offsetting softer volumes.
By 2027, stable top-line expected as cost competitiveness improves, with volume growth of 1.5% annually anticipated thereafter.
Cash flow turnaround of $420 million at gross level, with plans to reach 5% of revenue by 2027 and 7% by 2029, enabling debt reduction and potential shareholder returns.
Market dynamics and competitive positioning
Glass packaging remains uncompetitive versus cans in North America, with a 30-40% cost gap now narrowing to 15-20% due to tariffs and cost reductions.
Cost competitiveness efforts are focused on mainstream beer and NABs, with premium segment share targeted to rise from 27% to 40%.
Innovation in glass packaging, including entry into the 12-ounce RTD market, is expected to drive premiumization and share gains.
U.S. market seen as bullish due to potential to recapture share from imports and respond to consumer trends favoring glass over plastic.
European market remains fragmented, with premium beer and non-alcoholic beverages performing well, while Latin America shows strong performance in Andean regions and long-term potential in Brazil.
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