Alcoa (AA) 35th BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference summary

Strategic and operational highlights

• Entering 2026 with a strong balance sheet, improved pensions, and net debt at the top end of the target range.

• Achieved annual production records at five aluminum smelters and one refinery in 2025, with improved shipping performance and higher realized aluminum prices.

• Operations performed well in 2025, with strong aluminum prices boosting financials; alumina prices remain low, prompting cost focus.

• Key strategic initiatives for 2026 include ramping up Spain operations to 80% and progressing asset sales, with the first data center site sale expected in H1 2026.

• ELYSIS project successfully started a commercial-sized inert anode cell, marking progress in technology innovation.

Market and industry outlook

• North American and European aluminum demand remains strong in packaging and electrical conductors, steady in construction, and weaker in automotive.

• Global aluminum market expected to be balanced or in slight deficit for 2026, with low inventories.

• Alumina market faces surplus due to Indonesian refining ramp-up; about 50% of global refineries are cash negative, likely leading to curtailments.

• Regional aluminum premiums strengthened in 4Q25, with U.S. tariffs and EU CBAM dynamics expected to provide a net positive impact in 2026.

• No current signs of demand destruction in North America despite high prices; Midwest premium is high and attracting imports.

Asset monetization and capital allocation

• Targeting $500 million to $1 billion in asset sales over five years, focusing on repurposing curtailed sites for data centers.

• Monetization of a U.S. transformation site is expected to reach agreement in the first half of 2026.

• Healthy balance sheet allows flexibility between growth investments and shareholder returns; priority remains debt reduction, followed by growth and returns.

• Considering both organic (targeted investments in cast houses, recycling) and inorganic (synergy-driven acquisitions) growth opportunities.

• Ongoing discussions on share buybacks versus special dividends, with decisions based on financial analysis and board recommendations.