Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 shipping volume rose 6.3% year-over-year to 548,802 tons, but steel revenue declined 3.8% to $535.7M, and profitability was impacted by challenging global steel markets, tariff uncertainty, and soft demand.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was a loss of $60.3M (margin -10.2%), with net loss improving to $66.5M from $84.8M year-over-year.

• Full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $22.3M (0.9% margin), down from $319M (11.2% margin) in 2023, with full-year steel revenue at $2.24B, down from $2.59B.

• Safety performance improved significantly in 2024, with a strong focus due to ongoing EAF project activities.

• The EAF project is on schedule, with first steel production expected in April 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $60.3M; cash used in operations was $76.9M.

• Q4 steel revenue was $535.7M, down 3.8% year-over-year, as lower prices offset higher shipments.

• Full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $22.3M (0.9% margin), down from $319M (11.2% margin) in 2023.

• Cash at year-end was $267M, with total liquidity of $630M and $362M available under the revolving credit facility.

• Full-year steel revenue was $2.24B, down from $2.59B in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• First steel from EAF project expected in April 2025; full transition to EAF by end of 2026, with emissions reduced by ~70%.

• Q1 2025 plate production expected to be higher, with a ramp-up toward 650,000+ net tons annual capacity.

• Q1 2025 shipments expected to be sequentially lower (mid-400,000-ton range) due to weak demand and a brief blast furnace outage.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 expected to be lower sequentially, but recent steel price increases may benefit future quarters.

• Finished steel output projected to rise to 2.4–2.5M tons during transition and reach 3.0M tons post-2027.