Alvotech (ALVO) Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Strategic outlook and growth trajectory

• Transitioning from a two-product to a five or six-product company by next year, with key biosimilar approvals anticipated for Eylea, Prolia, Xgeva, and Simponi/Simponi Aria.

• Global expansion with sales in 70–90 countries and partnerships in 90 countries, with Europe and Japan highlighted as strong growth markets.

• 2025 revenue guidance set at $600–$700 million, with at least $200 million EBITDA, and an aspirational 2028 revenue target of $1.5 billion.

• Milestone revenues are expected to decrease proportionally as recurring product revenues and royalties grow.

• Margin expansion anticipated as product portfolio and geographic reach increase, with long-term EBITDA margin aspirations of 40–45%.

Product portfolio and market performance

• Biosimilar Humira has achieved the second largest market share in the U.S., with private label and formulary-based contracts driving growth.

• Biosimilar Stelara (Selarsdi) launched in the U.S. with 13–14% market conversion, and strong commercial success in Europe and Japan.

• Upcoming launches for biosimilars of Prolia, Xgeva, Simponi, and Eylea, with Eylea and Simponi expected to be significant due to early market entry and limited competition.

• Long-term pipeline includes biosimilars for Entyvio, high-dose Eylea, Xolair (2027–2028), and post-2028 assets like Keytruda, Dupixent, and Cimzia.

• Acquisition of Xbrane added Cimzia biosimilar and expanded R&D capacity, enabling 4–6 new filings per year.

Industry trends and operational strategy

• U.S. pharma tariffs have minimal impact due to the out-licensing model, with partners responsible for duties.

• Regulatory shifts are reducing biosimilar development costs and timelines, allowing for pipeline expansion, but high barriers to entry remain due to technology and capital requirements.

• China is seen as a potential partner but not a major competitive threat in Western biosimilar markets.

• CapEx needs are modest, with current manufacturing capacity sufficient for anticipated launches through 2030 and beyond.

• Biosimilar revenue curves differ from generics, with longer ramp-up and sustained growth phases, especially as new geographies are added.