Antero Resources (AR) Investor Presentation summary

Market outlook and global demand

• U.S. remains the primary incremental supplier of NGLs and LPG to meet robust global demand, especially from China, with exports expected to set new records in 2025.

• Global LPG and ethane demand is forecast to grow, with China’s PDH propane demand rising 50% by end of 2025 compared to 2023.

• U.S. NGL demand growth is driven primarily by exports, with a 9% increase projected from 2024 to 2026.

• OPEC+ aims to support Brent crude prices above $70/Bbl, influencing global NGL pricing.

• New ethane export demand is anticipated from U.S. flex terminals.

Supply, pricing, and export dynamics

• U.S. propane exports are forecast to grow 9% in 2025, following significant growth in previous years, with current export capacity constraints expected to ease in late 2025.

• Northeast producers benefit from export capacity at Marcus Hook, avoiding Gulf Coast constraints and capturing international price premiums.

• Antero’s C3+ NGL premium to Mont Belvieu is expected to increase in 2025, with realized differentials improving due to export access.

• C3+ NGL pricing as a percentage of WTI is returning to historical norms, supported by strong export demand.

• U.S. NGL supply growth is expected to peak by 2030, with shale crude and condensate production declining thereafter.

Regional and infrastructure advantages

• Mariner East 2 pipeline and Marcus Hook terminal provide Northeast producers with reliable export routes and access to international markets.

• Antero’s ethane supply benefits from firm sales contracts and anchor supply to Shell’s cracker, with additional takeaway capacity offering upside.

• Approximately 45% of potentially recoverable ethane in the Northeast is currently rejected, indicating future supply flexibility.

• Northeast C3+ NGL supply exceeds local demand, with the surplus exported or moved by rail.