Antero Resources (AR) Investor Presentation summary

Market fundamentals and demand drivers

• U.S. natural gas storage fell below the 5-year average in early 2025, with the largest winter withdrawal in a decade driven by record power burn and surging LNG demand.

• LNG export capacity is set to grow by 20 Bcf/d by 2030, with rapid ramp-up at facilities like Plaquemines outpacing expectations and supporting higher Gulf basis pricing.

• U.S. natural gas demand is forecast to grow by ~29 Bcf/d by 2030, led by LNG exports, Mexico pipeline exports, and increased electricity demand from data centers and electrification.

• Power burn demand has broken records every month in winter 2025, and residential/commercial demand in January 2025 was the highest on record.

• Natural gas has become the dominant power generation source, growing by ~6 Bcf/d from 2021 to 2024, while coal, nuclear, and other sources declined.

Supply constraints and regional dynamics

• Major gas basins, including Appalachia and Haynesville, face takeaway constraints and require higher prices to maintain production, with Haynesville's breakeven at ~$3.50+.

• Permian and Haynesville takeaway capacity is increasing, but growth is expected to moderate as new pipelines come online and legacy capacity becomes constrained.

• Appalachia and Permian regions continue to experience wide basis differentials due to limited transport capacity, impacting in-basin pricing.

• Net imports from Canada are expected to decline moderately through 2026 as Canadian LNG exports ramp up and production growth slows.

• U.S. exports to Mexico are rising, driven by increased power burn demand, with a 1.5 Bcf/d increase forecasted by year-end 2026.

Price outlook and market implications

• Natural gas prices are highly correlated to storage levels, with deficits to the 5-year average historically resulting in price spikes above $8/MMBtu.

• TGP 500L basis pricing has strengthened as Plaquemines LNG start-up exceeded expectations, supporting higher regional prices.

• Not all Gulf Coast transport is equal; Tier 1 transport (TGP 500L) offers more favorable differentials to Henry Hub compared to Tier 2/3 routes.

• Reduced coal-to-gas switching due to coal plant retirements limits the ability to offset high gas prices, further tightening the market.

• Large-scale coal plant retirements through 2030 provide upside for natural gas power generation demand.