Applied Materials (AMAT) Cantor Fitzgerald Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference summary

Market outlook and demand drivers

• Strong demand for advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, driven by AI and data center investments, with cloud AI CapEx projected at $600B in 2024 and $700B in 2025.

• Leading-edge semiconductor markets are fully utilized, with constraints expected to persist for more than a year.

• Customers are already slotting tool availability into 2027, with two-year visibility now standard across the customer base.

• Data center demand now accounts for 30% of leading-edge wafer demand, expected to surpass smartphones by 2029.

• DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are seeing strong pull, with HBM requiring more wafer area and process steps, boosting equipment demand.

Supply chain and operational readiness

• Supply chain has been re-engineered for regional self-sufficiency and reduced sole reliance, with increased capacity and inventory.

• No current roadblocks seen in the supply chain to support rapid industry growth.

• Helium supply is not expected to be a constraint despite recent geopolitical events.

• Customers are optimizing floor space and upgrading tools to maximize output, especially in DRAM and logic.

Segment performance and growth expectations

• Advanced packaging business grew from $500M in 2020 to $1.7B in 2024, with 2024 seeing a strong HBM build-out.

• Advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging are expected to grow faster than 20% in 2024, while ICAPS and NAND will grow more slowly.

• NAND bit demand remains strong, but wafer starts are flat due to technological advances increasing bit density.

• ICAPS business in China is expected to remain flat, with 25%-30% of business typically from China, mostly mature node technologies.