Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted Book Value per share reached a record $176.95 and Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity per share hit $120.11 as of June 30, 2025.

• Net income for Q2 2025 was $103 million ($2.08 per share), up from $78 million ($1.41 per share) in Q2 2024, driven by foreign exchange gains and litigation recovery.

• Adjusted operating income was $50 million ($1.01 per share) for Q2 2025 and $212 million ($4.21 per share) for H1 2025, with the Q2 figure down year-over-year due to higher loss expenses.

• $150 million was returned to shareholders in Q2 2025 through $131 million in share repurchases and $19 million in dividends; board authorized an additional $300 million for repurchases in August.

• Strategic focus on secondary market insurance and expansion into new markets and products continued.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 adjusted operating income was $50 million ($1.01/share), down from $80 million ($1.44/share) in Q2 2024.

• Net investment income rose to $89 million in Q2 2025, a 10% increase year-over-year.

• Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased by $5 million year-over-year.

• Loss expense increased by $27 million in Q2 2025, mainly due to additional reserves on U.K. utility and U.S. municipal exposures.

• Deferred premium revenue stood at $3.9 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• U.S. municipal market issuance could surpass 2024’s record $500 billion, with $278 billion already reached by June 30, and insured par sold up $3.3 billion year-over-year.

• Board authorized an additional $300 million for share repurchases as of August 6, 2025.

• Management expects continued volatility in net income due to market conditions, loss development, and fair value changes in investments and derivatives.

• Economic uncertainty, inflation, and global trade tensions are expected to impact insured obligors and new business opportunities.

• Dividend capacity for AG in 2025 is approximately $287 million.