Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved adjusted operating income of $389 million ($7.10 per share) for 2024, with Q4 at $66 million ($1.27 per share); record highs in adjusted book value per share ($170.12) and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share ($114.75).

• Repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million (11% of shares outstanding), meeting the $500 million repurchase target for 2024; total $570 million returned to shareholders including $68 million in dividends.

• Insured $32 billion of new business par in 2024, the largest in a decade, with net par outstanding rising across all sectors.

• Common stock price rose 20% to $90.01 during the year.

• Maintained strong financial strength ratings: AA (S&P), AA+ (KBRA), A1 (Moody's), with stable outlooks.

Financial highlights

• Full-year 2024 adjusted operating income was $389 million ($7.10 per share), down from $648 million ($10.78 per share) in 2023, which included $175 million after-tax gain from Sound Point and AHP transactions and $208 million in tax benefits.

• Q4 2024 adjusted operating income was $66 million ($1.27 per share), down from $338 million ($5.75 per share) in Q4 2023, which included $208 million in non-recurring tax benefits.

• Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased to $107 million in Q4 2024 from $86 million in Q4 2023.

• Net investment income for 2024 was $340 million; insurance and corporate operating expenses were $269 million.

• Deferred premium revenue stood at $3.9 billion at year-end.

Outlook and guidance

• Well positioned for 2025, with strong new issue volume in the U.S. municipal bond market and robust pipelines in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and continental Europe.

• Projected recognition of a $103 million pre-tax gain in Q1 2025 from successful litigation with Lehman Brothers International (Europe).

• Board increased quarterly dividend to $0.34/share in February 2025, continuing annual increases since 2012.

• Expected 2025 dividend capacity: $287 million for AG and $192 million for AG Re, based on statutory surplus and investment income.