Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $336 million ($6.77/share), up 17% per share year-over-year, with Q3 adjusted operating income at $124 million ($2.57/share).

• Net income attributable to shareholders was $105 million for Q3 2025 and $384 million for the nine months, with diluted EPS of $2.18 for Q3 and $7.73 for the nine months.

• Shareholders' equity per share reached a record $121.13, and adjusted book value per share was $181.37 as of September 30, 2025.

• Gross written premiums (GWP) were $75 million and present value of new business production (PVP) was $91 million in Q3, up 44% year-over-year.

• Year-to-date net income per share increased 20% and adjusted operating income per share rose 17% compared to the same period last year.

Financial highlights

• Net income attributable to shareholders for nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $384 million, up 7% year-over-year.

• Net investment income for the nine months was $270 million, a 9% increase year-over-year, with Q3 net investment income at $94 million.

• Adjusted operating ROE for nine months was 7.8%, up from 7.2% in 2024.

• Net earned premiums for nine months were $274 million, down 9% year-over-year.

• Loss and LAE (benefit) was $(30) million in Q3 2025 and $38 million for the nine months.

Outlook and guidance

• Management expects continued strong performance in Q4, with sizable transactions already booked and a focus on capital return and share repurchases.

• Board authorized an additional $100 million in share repurchases, with $332 million total repurchase authorization as of November 5, 2025.

• Growth opportunities identified in U.S. public finance secondary market, global structured finance, and new sectors like data centers and LNG.

• Shorter-duration structured finance transactions expected to enhance ROE and capital recycling.

• Management expects continued volatility in net income due to market conditions, foreign exchange, and loss development.