BNP Paribas (BNP) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net income group share reached €3.4bn in Q2 2024, up 1.6% year-over-year, with EPS up 8.1% to €2.81 and a CET1 ratio of 13.0%.

• Revenues rose 3.9% year-over-year to €12.27bn in Q2 2024, driven by CIB (+12.1%) and Global Markets (+17.6%), with stable CPBS performance.

• Operating efficiency measures continued, with positive jaws effect and cost control; operating expenses increased 4.2% in Q2 2024.

• Cost of risk remained low at 33 bps, reflecting portfolio quality despite a specific credit event.

• 2024 trajectory confirmed: revenue growth above 2%, positive jaws, cost of risk below 40 bps, and net income projected to exceed €11.2bn.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2024 net income: €3.4bn; gross operating income: €5.09bn (+3.4%); net banking income: €12.27bn (+3.9%).

• H1 2024 revenues: €24.8bn (+1.7% year-over-year); net income: €6.7bn, down from €7.5bn in H1 2023 due to absence of discontinued activities gains.

• EPS up 8.1% year-over-year; tangible book value at €88.5 as of June 30, 2024.

• Cost/income ratio: 58.5% in Q2 2024; operating expenses: €7.18bn (+4.2%).

• Dividend per share CAGR >10% (2013–2023), with €20bn estimated shareholder returns for 2024–2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance reaffirmed: revenue growth above 2%, positive jaws, cost of risk below 40 bps, and net income exceeding €11.2bn.

• Operational efficiency measures to deliver €1bn in 2024, with €650m in 2H24.

• Model well-positioned for gradual interest rate cuts and continued fee-based business growth.

• Baseline macro scenario: eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025, with inflation moderating to 2.2% in 2024.

• Scenario weighting for expected credit losses at June 2024: 29% favourable, 16% adverse, 5% severe.