BNP Paribas (BNP) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 net profit rose 15.7% year-over-year to €2.322 billion, with revenues up 10.8% and all divisions contributing to growth.

• CIB revenues surged 20.1% year-over-year, CPBS up 4.7%, and IPS up 8.4%, reflecting a diversified business model.

• Operational efficiency improved, with a positive jaws effect (+6.5 pts in Q4), supporting margin expansion.

• Fully delivered 2024 targets, confirmed a 60% payout policy, and introduced a semi-annual interim dividend starting in 2025.

• Launched final phase of strategic plan for 2025–2026, targeting accelerated growth and profitability.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenues: €12,137m (+10.8% vs. Q4 2023); full-year 2024 revenues: €48,831m (+4.1% vs. 2023).

• Q4 2024 net income: €2,322m (+15.7% vs. Q4 2023); full-year net income: €11,688m (+4.1% vs. 2023).

• Gross operating income in Q4 2024: €4,270m (+25.3% vs. Q4 2023); full-year: €18,638m (+7.4% vs. 2023).

• Cost of risk in Q4 2024: 38 bps (down 5 bps year-over-year); full-year: 33 bps.

• EPS for 2024: €9.57 (+8.9% vs. 2023); cash dividend: €4.79 per share; share buyback: €1.08bn to launch in Q2 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025–2026 plan targets >5% CAGR in revenues, >7% CAGR in net income, >8% CAGR in EPS, and CET1 ratio ~12.3%.

• ROTE targets: 11.5% in 2025, 12% in 2026, with cost of risk below 40 bps and positive jaws effect of ~1.5 pts per year.

• Distribution policy confirmed: 60% payout ratio (at least 50% in dividends) for 2024–2026, with a semi-annual interim dividend starting 2025.

• Group aims to distribute ~€20bn over 2024–2026, maintaining a 60% payout ratio.

• IPS to drive group growth, with pre-tax profit expected to grow by one-third over two years, fueled by AXA IM and HSBC Germany acquisitions.