Camden Property Trust (CPT) BofA NY Global Real Estate Conference 2026 summary

Portfolio strategy and market positioning

• Focus remains on high-growth Sun Belt markets, which have outperformed for decades due to strong job and population growth.

• Recent exit from California, selling older assets and reinvesting in newer Sun Belt properties, is expected to be accretive from year two onward.

• Portfolio is young, with an average asset age of 16 years, and 60% of assets in suburban, Class B submarkets.

• Scale in each market is targeted at five to six communities for operational efficiency, with Nashville being the only market below this threshold but growing.

• Exposure to the DMV (Washington, D.C. area) will be reduced over time to keep any single market below 10% of NOI.

Operating performance and demand drivers

• Occupancy for Q3 2026 is expected to average 95.7%-95.8%, with blended lease rate growth of 1%-2%, outperforming both the previous quarter and prior year.

• Retention remains at record highs, with move-outs to buy homes at a historic low of 10% since 2023.

• Demographic shifts, such as delayed marriage and childbearing, are extending renter lifespans and supporting low turnover.

• Demand is further supported by high mortgage rates and a significant number of young adults still living at home, representing future rental demand.

• Sun Belt markets, including Atlanta, Dallas, Raleigh, Charlotte, and South Florida, are leading in new lease signings and expected to drive recovery.

Supply, concessions, and pricing trends

• New supply peaked in 2024 and is projected to run below historical averages through 2028, supporting pricing power.

• Concessions are stable overall, but submarkets like Austin have seen rapid absorption and sharp rent increases as supply is absorbed and concessions are removed.

• As new supply is absorbed, concessions are expected to decline, leading to stronger revenue growth.

• The current environment is compared to the post-GFC period, with potential for several years of above-average NOI growth as supply moderates.

• Higher long-term rates are expected to most impact the sector by limiting new supply, which is seen as a positive for existing assets.