Camden Property Trust (CPT) Citi’s Miami Global Property CEO Conference 2026 summary

Strategic positioning and market outlook

• Focused on high-growth Sun Belt markets with strong job and population growth, positioning for outperformance as supply is absorbed over the next 12 months.

• Executed $473 million in stock repurchases in the past six months, with plans to reinvest $1.1 billion from Southern California asset sales into Sun Belt real estate and $650 million into additional stock buybacks.

• Southern California portfolio sale expected to generate $1.5–$2 billion, with proceeds allocated to higher-growth markets and share repurchases, aiming for a non-dilutive transaction in the first year and accretion as market conditions improve.

• Supply peaked in 2024 and is declining, creating a favorable multifamily environment; 2025 saw the highest apartment absorption in 20 years despite weak job growth.

• Anticipates a constructive 2026 due to regulatory reductions, tax refunds, and stabilized tariffs, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates and deregulation supporting operating margins.

Operational performance and demand trends

• First quarter performance is slightly improved from the fourth quarter, with expectations for typical seasonality and potential uptick in the third quarter as excess supply is absorbed.

• Renewal rates are in the mid-3% range, with record retention since COVID; a slight increase in turnover is expected in 2026 as retention normalizes.

• Demand trends are following typical seasonal patterns, with green shoots of pricing power emerging in Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, and Austin as concessions from competitors begin to decline.

• Renters have experienced wage growth while rents remained flat, resulting in strong consumer fundamentals and capacity to absorb future rent increases.

• Concessions on renewals are rare; most increases are realized as initial concessions expire, supporting embedded rent growth.

Supply, development, and capital allocation

• Low supply is expected to persist for 2–3 years due to poor returns on recent developments and cautious equity investors; significant new supply is unlikely before 2030–2031.

• Most current development is government-funded affordable housing, not directly competitive with core assets.

• Architectural Billings Index has declined for 30 months, indicating limited new project planning; any supply uptick will lag due to permitting and planning timelines.

• Southern California portfolio sale has attracted unprecedented interest, with 230 unique companies signing confidentiality agreements; selling costs are estimated at $10 million.

• Portfolio sale and reinvestment strategy is structured to avoid dilution, with a negative spread on FFO due to asset age differences but improved AFFO from lower CapEx on newer acquisitions.