Canadian National Railway Company (CNR) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results with disciplined execution, cost control, and productivity improvements amid significant macro volatility and tariff headwinds.

• Achieved 14% adjusted EPS growth in Q4 and 7% for the year, with operating ratio improving to 60.1% in Q4 and 61.7% for the year.

• Maintained focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns, including increased share buybacks and a 3% dividend hike.

• Delivered record grain movement and efficient operations despite early winter onset.

• Guidance for 2026 is cautious, tied to volume trends and ongoing macro and trade uncertainty.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenues rose 2% year-over-year to C$4,464M; operating income up 6% to C$1,733M; net income up 9% to C$1,248M.

• Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% in Q4 and 7% for the year; Q4 diluted EPS: $2.03 reported, $2.08 adjusted.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was C$3,336M, up 8% year-over-year.

• Repurchased approximately 15M shares in 2025 for C$2B.

• Operating ratio improved by 2.5 points in Q4 and 1.2 points for the year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth expected to slightly exceed flattish RTM volume growth.

• Capital expenditures for 2026 set at C$2.8B, down C$500M from 2025.

• Board approved a 3% dividend increase and a new NCIB for up to 24M share repurchases.

• Guidance assumes current tariff levels persist and no major changes in trade policy.

• Q1 2026 expected to be the toughest quarter, with improvement anticipated as the year progresses.