Certara (CERT) Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026 summary

Financial performance and guidance

• Fourth quarter revenue and EBITDA were in line with expectations, with organic software revenue for 2025 at 7% and EBITDA margin at 32%.

• 2026 revenue growth is guided at 0%-4%, reflecting deceleration in software bookings and stable but low single-digit growth in services.

• Software bookings in Q4 were down 6% year-on-year, mainly due to customer reprioritization and lower study counts.

• Services bookings showed strength in Q4, especially in regulatory and BIOSIM services, indicating market stability.

• Management maintains EBITDA margin guidance at 30%-32%, balancing R&D investment with cost discipline and $10 million in cost avoidance identified for 2026.

Market trends and customer dynamics

• Customer demand for Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) and biosimulation remains strong, with QSP, Simcyp, and PBPK services as fastest-growing areas.

• The market is expected to remain stable in 2026, with biotech (tier three) customers showing strong performance and large pharma (tier one) stabilizing.

• Shifts in disease focus by biopharma are met with flexibility due to diverse models and expertise.

• Biosimulation is positioned to benefit from industry moves away from animal model studies, with QSP and NAM-related services leading growth.

• The adoption curve for biosimulation is gradual due to industry risk aversion and long cycle times.

Strategic initiatives and leadership

• New CEO Jon Resnick is driving a more customer-centric and execution-focused commercial strategy.

• Operational changes include aligning incentives across software and services to better address customer needs.

• Investments are focused on R&D, particularly in AI-enabled features and biosimulation platforms like Certara IQ and Phoenix Cloud.

• The company is open to further M&A, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing strategic review.

• Share repurchase authorization remains in place as a capital allocation option.