CF Industries (CF) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved adjusted EBITDA of $2.89 billion for 2025, reflecting strong operational performance and favorable global nitrogen market dynamics.

• Returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.34 billion in share repurchases, reducing outstanding shares by 10%.

• Advanced strategic initiatives in low-carbon ammonia, including the Blue Point joint venture and carbon capture projects.

• Significant capital allocation to dividends and share repurchases, with $326 million in dividends paid.

Financial highlights

• Net sales for 2025 were $7.08 billion, up from $5.94 billion in 2024, with net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.46 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $2.89 billion; free cash flow totaled $1.79 billion.

• Gross margin improved to 38.5% of net sales, up from 34.6% in 2024.

• Q4 2025 net earnings were $404 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $821 million.

• Two impairment charges in Q4 totaling $76 million, including $51 million for the Donaldsonville electrolyzer pilot and $25 million for Yazoo City incident.

Outlook and guidance

• Gross ammonia production in 2026 is projected at 9.5 million tons due to the Yazoo City Complex outage, with production resuming no earlier than Q4 2026.

• Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $1.3 billion consolidated, with $950 million attributable to the company.

• Blue Point project remains on track with $3.7 billion total cost and civil work beginning in Q1 2026.

• Long-term targets include ~$3 billion EBITDA and ~$2 billion free cash flow by 2030.

• Management anticipates continued strong free cash flow generation and constructive global nitrogen market conditions.