Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Operates at the intersection of real estate, credit, and the U.S. cannabis sector, focusing on senior secured debt investments with limited lending competition.

• Closed over $3.2B in loans since inception, with $411.1M in outstanding principal as of December 31, 2025.

• Maintains a specialized team of over 100 professionals managing $2.3B in capital, leveraging over 100 years of combined expertise and $8B in real estate and commercial credit.

• Portfolio is diversified by loan size, rate type, operator, geography, and collateral type, with minimal overlap with broader private credit markets.

• Investment pipeline increased to $616 million, with recent activity including a credit facility for the largest cannabis ESOP to date.

Financial highlights

• Loan portfolio principal totaled $411.1 million across 26 companies as of December 31, with a weighted average yield to maturity of 16.3%.

• Net income for 2025 was $36.0 million, compared to $37.0 million in 2024.

• Distributable earnings for 2025 were $40.4 million, nearly flat year-over-year.

• Book value per share was $14.60 as of December 31, with 21.5 million shares outstanding.

• Annualized dividend yield to cost has averaged 12.5% since inception, with $41.4 million in regular dividends declared for 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Dividend payout ratio for 2026 expected to be 90%–100% of distributable earnings per diluted share, with potential for a special dividend if required.

• Regulatory reforms, including federal rescheduling of cannabis and a ban on unregulated hemp-derived THC, are expected to improve revenue visibility and margin durability for licensed operators.

• Industry revenue projected to grow from $35B in 2025 to $69B by 2031, with an estimated 11%+ annual growth rate.

• Management anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year due to potential regulatory changes and strong investment demand.

• Rescheduling of cannabis has increased demand for debt capital but has not yet affected pricing or underwriting standards.