Citigroup (C) 2026 RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference summary

Global economic and market outlook

• Global economic activity and business momentum remain strong, with U.S. consumer spending up 5% in February and corporate investment robust, especially in AI and automation.

• M&A activity is vibrant, with strong corporate balance sheets and positive drivers like deregulation and upcoming tax benefits, particularly in the U.S. and improving sentiment in Europe.

• The Middle East remains a significant risk factor; sustained high oil prices could impact global GDP and inflation, keeping central banks cautious on rate cuts.

• Large-cap M&A and equity capital markets are active, while middle-market and smaller IPOs are more selective; credit markets remain constructive.

• Private credit is seen as stable, with limited systemic risk, but prolonged geopolitical crises and AI-driven disruptions could pose challenges.

Regulatory and capital management

• Regulatory clarity on Basel III and GSIB is expected within two weeks, which will define capital requirements and stress capital buffer (SCB) expectations.

• Preference for accurate, multi-year SCB models to provide certainty and better reflect declining risk profiles.

• Supervisory focus is shifting toward material financial risks, with optimism about capital strength and risk management improvements.

Business performance and strategic initiatives

• Investment banking and markets are expected to deliver mid-teens year-over-year growth in fees and revenues for the quarter, driven by M&A and ECM strength.

• Operating efficiency is targeted at around 60% for the full year, with severance and transformation costs front-loaded in Q1.

• Integration of retail banking into wealth management aims to simplify forecasting and enhance long-term growth.