ConocoPhillips (COP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong financial and operational execution in 2025, with adjusted EPS of $6.16 and CFO of $19.9 billion, outperforming guidance on CapEx, operating costs, and production.

• Integrated Marathon Oil, increasing resources by over 25%, exceeding synergy targets, and realizing over $1 billion in one-time benefits.

• Returned $9.0 billion to shareholders (45% of CFO) via $5.0 billion in share repurchases and $4.0 billion in dividends, with a top-quartile S&P 500 dividend growth rate.

• Strengthened balance sheet with $7.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, and reduced net debt by nearly $2 billion.

• Advanced major projects and LNG strategy, including Willow and Port Arthur LNG, positioning for peer-leading free cash flow growth through the decade.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 production was 2,320,000 BOE/d, matching guidance midpoint; full-year production was 2,375 MBOED, up 388 MBOED year-over-year.

• Adjusted EPS for Q4 2025 was $1.02; full-year adjusted EPS was $6.16.

• 2025 capital expenditures totaled $12.6 billion; Q4 CapEx was $3 billion.

• Closed over $3 billion in asset sales in 2025, progressing toward a $5 billion target by end of 2026.

• Ended 2025 with $7.4 billion in cash and short-term investments.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 CapEx guidance is ~$12 billion, with operating cost guidance of ~$10.2 billion.

• 2026 production guidance: 2.33–2.36 MMBOED, with Q1 expected at 2.3–2.34 MMBOED, including weather-related downtime.

• Targeting $1 billion combined reduction in CapEx and operating costs in 2026.

• Plan to return 45% of 2026 CFO to shareholders and sustain top-quartile dividend growth.

• Expect ~$7 billion FCF improvement by 2029, with $1 billion annual improvement from 2026–2028.