CoreCivic (CXW) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 financial results exceeded internal forecasts and analyst estimates, driven by cost discipline, higher occupancy, and new and expanded contracts, despite revenue declines from contract terminations and facility closures.

• Fiscal year 2024 revenue reached $1,961.6 million, net income was $68.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA totaled $330.8 million.

• The company operates 15.3 million square feet of real estate, managing 55% of privately-owned prison beds in the U.S., and maintains a 96% contract retention rate since 2020.

• Positioned for significant growth in 2025, anticipating increased demand from federal partners due to new immigration policies, legislative changes, and active proposals for 28,000 ICE beds.

• Three business segments: Safety, Properties, and Community, with Safety generating over 91% of NOI in 2024.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenue was $479.3M, net income $19.3M, diluted EPS $0.17, and adjusted EBITDA $74.2M.

• Full-year 2024 revenue was $1.96B–$2.0B, net income $68.9M, diluted EPS $0.62, and adjusted EBITDA $330.8M.

• Q4 2024 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.16; normalized FFO per share was $0.39; AFFO per share was $0.35.

• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.3x at year-end 2024; fixed charge coverage 4.1x; interest coverage 4.4x.

• Federal revenue declined 12% in Q4, but excluding South Texas, federal revenue increased 3% year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 diluted EPS guidance: $0.48–$0.61; FFO per share: $1.37–$1.50; net income guidance: $53.5M–$67.5M; EBITDA: $281M–$293M.

• Guidance assumes steady increases in federal populations, higher utilization of existing contracts, and does not include new contract awards due to timing uncertainty.

• AFFO for 2025 expected to range from $148.5M–$165.5M.

• Maintenance CapEx for 2025 projected at $60M–$65M, with $40M–$45M for potential idle facility activations.

• Expects to execute multiple new contracts in 2025, with potential for idle facility activations and related start-up expenses.