Danske Bank (DANSKE) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Macroeconomic outlook for the euro area and Nordics remains positive, with upgraded GDP forecasts and resilient labor markets supporting growth expectations for 2026.

• Central bank policy rates are expected to rise, with two 25bp ECB hikes now anticipated by end-2026, reflecting recent market repricing and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

• Q1 will see a condensed results presentation and a strategy update, with follow-up investor events in London and New York.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Lending volumes have improved slightly at the start of Q1, though Q1 has two fewer interest days, impacting net interest income by DKK 65–70 million.

• Wholesale funding issuance in Q1 reached DKK 42 billion, in line with the annual plan, with strong investor demand for a new perpetual instrument.

• Fee income from everyday banking remains healthy, but investment and refinancing fees are lower due to market volatility and seasonality.

• Customer-driven trading income and capital markets activity, especially ECM, have been subdued amid market volatility.

Profitability and margins

• Non-recurring NII benefit of DKK 0.2 billion in Q4 will not repeat in Q1.

• Interest rate sensitivity remains significant, with a 25bp hike across all currencies estimated to have a DKK 450 million positive effect, but a DKK 650 million negative impact for DKK and EUR.

• Full-year expense outlook reiterated at DKK 26–26.5 billion for 2026.