Danske Bank (DANSKE) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Macroeconomic outlook in the Nordics remains positive, with growth expected to improve in 2026, supported by rising real incomes and investments.

• Danish economy shows solid fundamentals with low unemployment and growing real wages, though consumer confidence is still subdued.

• No impact expected from the end of U.S. corporate probation; no new decisions on Danish CRE risk weights.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Net interest income in Q4 will benefit from a non-recurring DKK 0.2 billion tax-related gain.

• Lending volumes remained stable in Q4; day effect estimated at DKK 65–70 million.

• Fee income diversified, with Q4 performance fees expected in line with previous years; refinancing fees slightly higher than Q3.

• Primary capital markets activity subdued in Q4, especially ECM and M&A.

• Customer-driven trading income expected to be seasonally lower in Q4.

Profitability and margins

• Full-year costs expected just below DKK 26 billion, with higher seasonal costs in Q4.

• Loan impairment guidance reiterated at no more than DKK 600 million for the full year.

• Danica insurance to book a DKK 0.2 billion negative one-off in Q4, pushing full-year insurance income below guidance.