Empresas Copec (COPEC) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• EBITDA for Q3 2025 was US$642 million, down 15.9% year-on-year, mainly due to lower forestry performance, partially offset by strong energy division results.

• Net income reached US$198 million, down 51% year-on-year, reflecting challenging forestry market conditions and asset sales, but consistent with recent trends when adjusted for one-time effects.

• Consolidated sales were US$7,348 million, up 0.9% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter.

• Energy division (Copec, Abastible, Terpel) delivered robust EBITDA growth, with Copec and Abastible up 19% and 14% year-on-year, respectively.

• Mina Justa mine posted strong EBITDA of US$236 million, up 35% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes, favorable copper prices, and lower cash costs.

Financial highlights

• EBITDA margin declined to 8.3%–8.7% in Q3 2025 from 8.7%–10.5% in prior periods.

• Net financial debt/EBITDA increased to 3.26x, up from 2.47x a year ago, reflecting higher CapEx and lower EBITDA.

• CapEx for the quarter was US$1,074 million, with 84% allocated to forestry and 13% to energy.

• Arauco's EBITDA dropped to US$296 million from US$463 million year-on-year; net income nearly zero versus US$231 million last year, impacted by lower pulp prices and absence of prior asset sales.

• Total financial debt was US$11,710 million; net debt was US$9,020 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Management expects Latin American fuel markets to grow in line with GDP for the next decade, with flexibility to adapt to electromobility adoption.

• Sucuriú project is on track at 25.7% completion, with sufficient fiber supply secured for mill startup and significant financing in place.

• No anticipated need for shareholder cash contributions for Mina Justa Subterránea; financing will combine internal cash flow and debt.

• Pulp prices in China have stabilized at low levels; no significant recovery expected for softwood in the short term.

• European pulp demand remains weak, with stable sales expected but no signs of improvement.