Equifax (EFX) Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference summary

Consumer and mortgage market trends

• Mortgage activity is down about 50% from historic levels due to high rates, with recovery delayed until at least 2027 or 2028, but a backlog of high-rate mortgages could drive future growth.

• Consumer employment remains strong, supporting origination activity, though inflation and fuel costs pressure lower-income segments.

• No significant changes in customer lending criteria or cutoff scores have been observed despite market challenges.

• Guidance for the year has not been updated since July, but higher rates have impacted transaction volumes.

• Long-term growth targets of 7%-10% are expected to be met even in a flat mortgage market.

VantageScore adoption and credit file strategy

• VantageScore adoption is accelerating, with pricing held at $1 through 2027 to drive lender choice and industry savings.

• VantageScore offers a 45% lower cost compared to FICO, potentially saving the industry over $1 billion.

• Modest price increases are planned for credit files, with no intention of large hikes like FICO.

• Tri-merge credit file approach is defended as essential for consumer approval rates and risk management, with ongoing collaboration with regulators.

• Investments are being made to differentiate credit files, including adding income, employment, and utility data to improve pre-qualification accuracy.

Government and Workforce Solutions business

• Workforce Solutions government vertical uses income and employment data for social service delivery, with a $5 billion TAM and $800 million current business.

• $100 million in new ACV contracts and $200 million in renewals were secured, with most new revenue benefiting 2027.

• Pipeline for government business has doubled year-over-year, with high retention rates and strong engagement at federal and state levels.

• Long-term growth for government vertical is expected at the top end of company targets, helping power overall growth.