Equifax (EFX) Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference summary

U.S. consumer credit environment

• Credit conditions remain stable with low unemployment supporting consumer strength, but inflation and lower wage growth are pressuring lower-end consumers, leading to increased delinquencies in subprime and auto asset classes.

• Lenders, especially fintechs, are investing more in data to better underwrite complex consumer segments, leveraging alternative data and new indicators for improved approval rates and lower losses.

• No significant changes are expected in consumer credit quality or customer behavior through 2025 and into 2026.

Hiring and background screening trends

• Blue-collar hiring remains strong, while white-collar hiring is soft due to economic uncertainty, AI-driven productivity, and corporate caution.

• Background screening volumes are down in white-collar segments, but data solutions continue to outgrow the market, supported by new products and expanded data coverage.

• The total addressable market for background screening data is $3–4 billion, with current revenues at $400 million, leaving significant room for growth.

• Investments in education, incarceration, and medical credentialing data, along with M&A, aim to expand offerings.

Organic growth targets and macro drivers

• Long-term organic growth target is 7–10% in a normal economic environment, assuming a couple points of GDP growth and excluding mortgage market recovery.

• Mortgage market has been in a recession, down 50% from 2015–2019 levels, but is expected to bottom out and recover as rates decline.

• Recovery in mortgage could add $1.2 billion in revenue and $700 million in EBITDA at current pricing, with further upside from price increases.

• New product innovation, pricing, record additions, and penetration in various verticals are key growth drivers.