Equifax (EFX) Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2025 summary

Macroeconomic environment and consumer credit trends

• U.S. consumer confidence has declined, but low unemployment supports ongoing lending activity.

• Inflation and tariff uncertainties pose future risks, especially for subprime consumers.

• Mortgage market activity is down about 50% from pre-COVID levels, with 2024 guidance reflecting a 12% decline in transactions.

• Subprime delinquencies have normalized after increases in 2022–2023; student loan collections may impact subprime further.

• Most financial institutions remain strong, and lending activity is broadly stable outside of mortgage.

Business mix, resilience, and innovation

• Revenue mix is shifting toward more recession-resilient, subscription-based government and talent businesses.

• Over 60% of revenue is now considered recession-resilient, up from 47% in 2001.

• Subscription models in government and talent provide revenue floors, limiting downside risk.

• Post-cloud transformation enables rapid product innovation, such as combining credit and employment data.

• New products like TWIN and NCTUE attributes differentiate offerings and expand market share.

Mortgage and credit file market dynamics

• No expected regulatory shift from tri-merge to bi-merge credit pulls; industry values comprehensive data.

• New credit file products integrate income and employment data at no extra cost, aiming to boost market share.

• Positive feedback from lenders on enhanced credit files; similar strategies are being applied to auto and personal loans.

• Alternative data sets like NCTUE expand the pool of eligible borrowers.

• Organizational changes align leadership across credit and employment data solutions for synergy.