ERG (ERG) Q4 2025 & strategic update earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached EUR 540 million, stable year-on-year despite exceptionally weak wind conditions, with new asset contributions offsetting adverse weather impacts.

• Adjusted net profit for 2025 was EUR 155 million, down from EUR 175 million in 2024, mainly due to higher depreciation, financial charges, and asset write-downs.

• Investments totaled EUR 235 million in 2025, with a strategic shift toward organic growth, wind repowering, and battery storage, and a reduced focus on acquisitions.

• The board proposes a EUR 1 per share dividend, consistent with policy, and completed a share buyback representing 3.3% of share capital.

• Strategic guidelines emphasize performance excellence, organic development, asset rotation, and securing long-term PPAs/CFDs.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted revenues for 2025 were EUR 752 million, up from EUR 738 million in 2024, driven by new capacity despite lower wind and falling prices.

• EBITDA for Q4 2025 was EUR 147 million, slightly higher year-on-year, driven by new assets and organic growth.

• Net financial position at year-end was EUR 1.9 billion, up from EUR 1.79 billion in 2024, in line with guidance.

• Reported net profit was EUR 65 million, impacted by EUR 88 million in asset impairments, mainly in Spain and Sweden.

• Fitch reaffirmed BBB- rating with stable outlook; liquidity remains strong with undrawn EUR 600 million RCF.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 EBITDA guidance is EUR 520–590 million, reflecting expectations for improved wind conditions and higher production, but lower captured prices and incentive values.

• CapEx for 2026 is projected at EUR 330–380 million, including ongoing UK investments and construction projects.

• Net financial position at end-2026 expected between EUR 1.95–2.05 billion, with dividend policy maintained.

• Guidance is below consensus due to lower captured prices, fewer installed MW, and downtime from repowering projects.

• Long-term business plan to be presented by end-2026/early 2027, focusing on organic growth, asset rotation, and geographical refocus.