ERG (ERG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 535 million, stable year-over-year, despite exceptionally low wind conditions, offset by 579 MW of new wind and solar capacity, including entry into the US market.

• Adjusted net profit fell 22% year-on-year to EUR 175 million, mainly due to lower wind production, higher depreciation, and financial charges from new assets.

• Significant investments of EUR 553 million were made, up 13% year-on-year, with two-thirds allocated to M&A in France and the US, and one-third to organic growth, mainly repowering and greenfield projects.

• Shareholder remuneration for 2024 totals EUR 1.15 per share, combining a EUR 1 dividend and EUR 0.15 from share buybacks, with flexibility for further buybacks.

• Strategic focus remains on value over volume, with a 20% CapEx cut for 2024–2026 to EUR 1 billion, and a more selective approach to growth and US expansion.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA: EUR 535 million in 2024 (EUR 534 million in 2023); Q4 2024: EUR 145–159 million.

• Adjusted net profit: EUR 175 million in 2024 (EUR 226 million in 2023); Q4: EUR 45 million (EUR 77 million in 2023).

• Net financial indebtedness at year-end: EUR 1,793 million (EUR 1,445 million at end-2023); after IFRS 16: EUR 2,023 million.

• Capital expenditure: EUR 553 million in 2024 (EUR 489 million in 2023), mainly for US and France acquisitions, Italian repowering, and new greenfield projects.

• Dividend yield remains high at ~5.5%, above sector peers.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 EBITDA guidance: EUR 540–600 million, reflecting continued wind drought in early 2025; guidance would be EUR 30–40 million higher under normal wind conditions.

• 2025 capex expected at EUR 190–240 million, focused on assets under construction and UK acquisition.

• Net financial indebtedness at end-2025 projected at EUR 1,850–1,950 million.

• Targeting EBITDA above EUR 600 million by 2026, with 85–90% secured through CFDs and PPAs.

• Dividend floor at EUR 1/share confirmed for 2026+, with potential upside from buybacks.