Expand Energy (EXE) Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference summary

Market outlook and macro trends

• Constructive outlook for natural gas with expectations of continued volatility, presenting both risks and opportunities through 2026 and 2027.

• U.S. natural gas production saw significant sequential growth, especially in Haynesville, driven by both inventory drawdown and productivity gains.

• Industry efficiency continues to improve, enabling more gas production with stable or modestly increasing rig counts.

• Power demand, particularly from data centers, is a key driver of robust weather-adjusted gas burns in 2025, with some demand underreported due to distributed and behind-the-meter systems.

• International factors, such as the potential return of Russian gas to Europe, are expected to indirectly impact U.S. pricing, but long-term global demand growth for energy remains strong.

Price expectations and hedging strategy

• Mid-cycle price expectations for natural gas are set at $3.50-$4 for 2026 and 2027, aligning with current forward strips.

• The company employs an eight-quarter hedge-to-wedge strategy, using collars and swaps to manage near-term price risk and protect capital allocation.

• Aggressively locks in prices above $4 and maintains flexibility to adjust capital allocation based on long-term price views.

• Goal is to reduce cash flow volatility and optimize returns through disciplined hedging and capital deployment.

Capital allocation and asset development

• Capital allocation between Marcellus and Haynesville remains stable, with Marcellus constrained by infrastructure and Haynesville optimized for mid-cycle pricing.

• Western Haynesville represents a new, early-stage opportunity with attractive inventory costs and potential for cost leadership despite higher drilling costs.

• Strategic focus is on acquiring inventory at favorable costs and leveraging operational expertise in high-cost, deep, and hot zones.