Expand Energy (EXE) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved status as the largest domestic natural gas producer with ~7.4 Bcfe/d in 2025 and guidance for ~7.5 Bcfe/d in 2026, with a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens year-over-year.

• Delivered ~$1.4bn Adjusted EBITDAX in 4Q25, $1,819 million net income for 2025, and ~$865mm returned to shareholders.

• Multi-year deleveraging reduced gross debt by ~$1.25 billion since the merger, with at least $1bn net debt reduction targeted for 2026.

• Strategic focus on marketing, hedging, and capturing new demand, including a move to Houston to strengthen commercial capabilities.

• Leadership transition underway, with a CEO search expected to take 6–9 months.

Financial highlights

• Net income for 2025 was $1,819 million, with adjusted EBITDAX of $5,078 million and free cash flow of $1,839 million.

• $200 million in hedging gains realized, mitigating gas price volatility.

• Maintenance CapEx improved by $225 million year-over-year to deliver 7.5 Bcf/d, with 2025 capital expenditures totaling $2.85bn.

• Targeting a $0.20 uplift in realizations, equating to approximately $500 million in EBITDA.

• Production expense per Mcfe decreased to $0.25 in 2025, with further improvement to $0.23–$0.28 expected in 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 production guidance: 7,400–7,600 MMcfe/d, with Haynesville at ~3,200, Northeast Appalachia at ~2,675, and Southwest Appalachia at ~1,625 MMcfe/d.

• 2026 capex guidance: $2.85bn, maintaining ~7.5 Bcfe/d production.

• At least $1bn net debt reduction planned for 2026, with 66% of 2026 production hedged.

• Aggressive pursuit of premium markets, storage, and value chain participation to achieve $0.20 margin uplift within 3–5 years.

• Quarterly base dividend of $0.575 per share to be paid in March 2026.