First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved over $1 billion in total revenue and over $100 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the first time in 2024, despite industry headwinds and pressured consumer environment.

• Opened 50 new restaurants in 2024, including a record 25 in Q4, with new units outperforming system averages and strong projected returns.

• Operated 572 system-wide restaurants in 29 states at year-end, with continued focus on daytime dining and fresh, made-to-order offerings.

• Focused on operational efficiency, improved labor metrics, and enhanced customer experience, while avoiding aggressive price promotions.

• Entered 2025 with a robust real estate and people pipeline, expanding into new markets like New England and Las Vegas.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenue was $263.3 million, up 16.8% year-over-year, excluding the 53rd week in 2023.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $24.3 million, with margin rising to 9.2%.

• Net income for Q4 was $700,000, with a net income margin of 0.3%.

• Restaurant-level operating profit margin was 18.8% in Q4.

• Same-restaurant sales declined 0.3% in Q4, with a 3% decrease in same-restaurant traffic.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 same-restaurant sales growth expected to be positive low single digits, with flat to slightly positive traffic.

• Total revenue growth projected at around 20%, including a 400 basis point impact from acquisitions.

• Plan to open 59–64 net new system-wide restaurants, with 55–58 company-owned and 7–9 franchise-owned.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is $124 million–$130 million, with 50%–55% of EBITDA expected in the second half.

• Capital expenditures expected at $150 million–$160 million, excluding franchise acquisitions.

• Long-term annual targets reiterated: low double-digit NRO % growth, ~3.5% same-restaurant sales growth, and mid-teens growth in restaurant sales and Adjusted EBITDA.