Fortum (FORTUM) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved power prices increased in Q3, but generation volumes were abnormally low due to hydro and nuclear outages, impacting profitability; these are expected to be temporary.

• Efficiency improvement program targets EUR 100 million in annual fixed cost reductions by end of 2025, with full effect from 2026.

• Renewables pipeline strengthened by acquiring a 4.4 GW wind project portfolio in Finland, bringing total onshore wind and solar projects in permitting to 8 GW.

• Coal exit progresses with an EUR 85 million investment in the Zabrze CHP plant retrofit in Poland, supporting decarbonization goals.

• Strategic focus remains on Nordic clean energy, decarbonisation, and growth in renewables.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 sales were EUR 929 million, down from EUR 1,094 million in Q3 2024; comparable EBITDA was EUR 175 million, down from EUR 254 million.

• Q3 comparable operating profit was EUR 97 million, down year-over-year due to lower generation volumes; comparable EPS for 9M 2025 was EUR 0.59.

• Net profit for January–September 2025 was EUR 520 million, compared to EUR 820 million in the same period last year.

• Operative cash flow for 9M 2025 was EUR 787 million, down from EUR 1,225 million.

• Dividend of EUR 1.40 per share (EUR 1,256 million) paid in April 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Generation segment’s Nordic power sales hedged: 90% at EUR 42/MWh for 2025, 70% at EUR 41/MWh for 2026, 45% at EUR 39/MWh for 2027.

• Annual nuclear output for 2025 is estimated to be 3.6 TWh lower than normal due to outages; hydro output for the last 12 months was 17.8 TWh versus a normal 20–20.5 TWh.

• Optimization premium for 2025 is now estimated at EUR 10/MWh, up from previous guidance of EUR 7–9/MWh, driven by higher power price volatility.

• Effective income tax rate guidance remains 18–20% for 2025–2026; Finnish corporate tax may decrease to 18% from 2027.

• Capital expenditure for 2025–2027 is expected at EUR 1.4 billion, with EUR 250 million per year for maintenance and EUR 150–300 million per year for growth.