Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Online enrollment grew 7.1% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with hybrid enrollment up 14.9% excluding closed/teach-out sites.

• Service revenue for Q4 2024 rose 5.1% to $292.6 million, driven by higher enrollments and increased revenue per student, especially from ABSN programs at off-campus sites.

• Net income for Q4 2024 was $81.9 million, up 1.4% year-over-year; GAAP diluted EPS at $2.84 and non-GAAP EPS at $2.95, both exceeding consensus.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 grew 5.1% to $116.6 million.

• Full-year 2024 service revenue increased 7.5% to $1,033.0 million, with net income reaching $226.2 million, a 10.4% increase.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 operating income was $100 million (34.2% margin); adjusted for $1.9 million in charges, operating income was $101.9 million (34.8% margin).

• Full-year 2024 operating income was $275.4 million, up 10.5%; operating margin improved to 26.7%.

• Diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $2.84 (as adjusted: $2.95); full-year diluted EPS was $7.73 (as adjusted: $8.04).

• Cash and investments increased by $80.1 million year-over-year to $324.6 million at year-end 2024.

• Repurchased 416,497 shares for $64.8 million in Q4 2024; $173.2 million used for share repurchases in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance anticipates mid to high single-digit online enrollment growth and low to mid-teens hybrid growth.

• 2025 full-year service revenue expected between $1,074.5 million and $1,097.0 million; operating margin between 27.1% and 27.9%.

• 2025 diluted EPS guidance is $8.20–$8.59; as adjusted, $8.43–$8.82.

• Margins expected to decline in H1 2025 due to investments, but expand in H2, with full-year margins up year-over-year.

• CapEx for 2025 projected at $30–$40 million, in line with prior year.