Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) investor relations material

Executive summary

• Q3 service revenue rose 2.4% YoY to $267.3M as university partner enrollment increased 5.2% to 145,270; new enrollments were flat, with ground-campus results below expectations.

• Q3 net income was $43.0M vs. $16.3M, with the prior-year comparison affected by a $35.0M litigation settlement; adjusted net income was $45.6M vs. $49.7M.

• 2027 total enrollment growth is projected above 7%, supported by online, hybrid and ground-campus initiatives.

Financial highlights

• Q3 GAAP operating income was $51.5M vs. $18.0M; operating margin was 19.3% vs. 6.9%, and adjusted margin was 20.5%.

• Q3 GAAP diluted EPS was $1.67; adjusted diluted EPS was $1.77 vs. $1.78, and Adjusted EBITDA declined 3.2% to $73.5M.

• Nine-month service revenue rose 5.3% to $840.2M; GAAP operating income was $205.1M and net income was $164.2M.

• Q3 revenue rose $6.2M; $7.5M shifted to Q4 due to six fewer ground-course revenue days, while student mix also weighed on revenue per student.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2026 revenue guidance is $1,160.7M–$1,161.7M, operating margin 27.6%–27.7%, and diluted EPS $9.81–$9.85; adjusted diluted EPS guidance is $10.09–$10.13.

• Q4 online new enrollments are expected to return to mid-single-digit growth, supporting 6%–7% total online enrollment growth.

• 2027 enrollment growth is projected at 5%–6% online, over 10% on the ground campus and low double digits at hybrid campuses.

• Long-term goals remain 7% enrollment and revenue growth with slight margin expansion.