Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Online enrollment grew 8.7% year-over-year, with hybrid enrollment up 18.7% excluding closed/teach-out sites.

• Service revenue for Q4 2025 was $308.1 million, up 5.3% from Q4 2024, driven by a 7.1% increase in university partner enrollments to 136,239.

• Net income for Q4 2025 was $86.7 million; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $3.21, beating consensus by $0.02.

• Investments in marketing and recruitment for the ground campus led to higher applications and improved student quality.

• AI integration across curriculum and operations is driving efficiency, student support, and academic outcomes.

Financial highlights

• Operating income for Q4 2025 was $108.1 million, with an operating margin of 35.1%, up from 34.2% in Q4 2024.

• Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA increased 5.8% to $123.3 million; full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 8.4% to $368.6 million.

• Diluted EPS for Q4 2025 was $3.14 (as adjusted $3.21); full-year diluted EPS was $7.71 (as adjusted $9.08).

• Cash and investments at year-end 2025 totaled $300.1 million, down from $324.6 million at year-end 2024, mainly due to share repurchases and capital expenditures.

• Repurchased 605,730 shares in Q4 2025 for ~$100 million; $284.6 million remains under repurchase authorization.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: revenue and operating income midpoints in line with consensus; EPS midpoint above consensus due to lower share count.

• 2026 full-year service revenue expected between $1,167.5 million and $1,189.0 million.

• 2026 operating margin projected at 27.5%–28.8%; diluted EPS guidance of $9.55–$10.16 (as adjusted $9.79–$10.40).

• Online enrollment growth expected in mid- to high-single digits; hybrid pillar growth in high single digits to mid-teens.

• Margins expected to be lower in H1 2026, expanding in H2; full-year margin up year-over-year.