Graphic Packaging Company (GPK) Baird 2026 Global Industrial Conference summary

Operating reset and deleveraging

• Kalamazoo and Waco investments are shifting from build-out to commercializing installed capacity and improving utilization.

• Enterprise initiatives target inflation recovery and productivity through commercial excellence, S&OP, inventory reduction and consolidated procurement.

• EBITDA margin improved sequentially from 10% in Q1 to 11% in Q2 and 13% in Q3 2026; 500 roles were eliminated this year.

• Year-end 2026 targets include $4.9B of debt and 4.7x net leverage; deleveraging continues, with investment-grade metrics targeted in the 2030 range.

• Priorities are free-cash-flow conversion, debt reduction and disciplined CapEx and OpEx; mid- to long-term margin ambition is mid-teens or higher.

Pricing, inflation and cash flow

• Pricing recovery totals ~$150M across 2026–2027: $60M in 2026 and a further $90M in 2027; inflation rose from an initial $35M estimate to $170M.

• Non-paperboard inflation clauses are being updated quarterly as contracts renew; announced price increases exceed $200M if fully recognized.

• 2026 free-cash-flow guidance midpoint is $650M, including $300M from working capital; $135M of one-time costs includes $75M for working-capital initiatives.

• 2027 carryover pricing of ~$90M is expected to offset ~$90M of inflation; structural cost takeouts add ~$15M carryover from $90M in 2026 toward $105M total.

Growth, innovation and markets

• Volume outlook improved from -1% to 1% to 0% to 1%, adding 50 bps at the midpoint; first return to expected growth in roughly three years.

• URB serves 20+ customers with over 20,000 tons in 2026; 2027 volume is expected at ~100,000 tons, with further Waco headroom and a role in recycled-capacity absorption.

• Food, beverage, household, health and beauty exposure, across North America and Europe, supports diversification; protein and food are strong while food service is softer.

• Plastic-to-paper opportunities represent an estimated $15B+ future industry addressable market; over 3,000 patents are held and more than 50 were filed in 2026.

• Innovation focuses on plastic-to-paper conversion and customer co-development; 95 beverage co-packer machines are installed, with emerging beverage brands among the growth targets.