Graphic Packaging Company (GPK) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 net sales were $2.192B, nearly flat YoY; volume/mix rose 1%, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $289M from $383M and net income to $22M from $142M.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin rose 190 bps sequentially to 13.2% for a second consecutive quarter; YTD adjusted cash flow was $314M, up $646M YoY.

• Cost reductions, productivity actions and commercial initiatives supported sequential recovery; priorities remain profitable growth, cash generation and debt reduction, with YoY EBITDA growth expected in 2027.

Financial highlights

• Q3 sales were $2.192B versus $2.190B YoY; volume/mix added $19M, innovation $42M, while price reduced sales by $15M and FX/other by $2M.

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $289M versus $383M; adjusted EPS was $0.23 versus $0.58. Net income was $22M versus $142M, and diluted EPS was $0.07 versus $0.48.

• Q3 inflation was $83M, including $57M in commodity costs and $26M in other costs; maintenance expense was $12M higher YoY.

• Q3 adjusted cash flow was $359M, up $332M YoY; YTD adjusted cash flow was $314M versus negative $332M.

• Structural cost reductions were ~$30M in Q3; expected full-year savings increased to ~$90M.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 net sales are expected at ~$8.6B, adjusted EBITDA at ~$1.05B and adjusted EPS at ~$0.65.

• FY26 adjusted cash flow guidance remains $600M–$700M, with capital spending below $450M; cash flow at the guidance midpoint is estimated at ~$650M.

• Q4 volume is expected down 1% to up 1%; FY26 volume is expected flat to up 1% YoY, with pricing expected to improve sequentially in Q4 and into 2027.

• Full-year input cost inflation is estimated at ~$170M, including $20M of additional headwinds; inventory-reduction downtime costs are expected at ~$75M.

• 2027 is expected to bring YoY EBITDA growth and margin expansion; inflation and pricing carryovers are expected to broadly offset, alongside ~$15M of cost-savings carryover.