Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Loan book expanded 15% sequentially and 60% YTD in real terms, with retail loans up 44% QoQ and now 44% of total; market share gained 60 bps YTD.

• Net income for 3Q24 was AR$8.9B, down QoQ and YoY, but 9M24 net income rose 54% YoY to AR$89.8B; ROE for 9M24 reached 16.4%, with FY24 guidance reaffirmed at 15%.

• US$ deposits hit record highs, up 90% QoQ and 170% YTD, driven by tax amnesty and market share gains.

• NPL ratio stable at 0.8%, with coverage ratio at 282% and CET1 ratio at 19.2%.

• CEO transition completed with Gustavo Manriquez appointed effective October 1, 2024.

Financial highlights

• Net financial income in 3Q24 was AR$161.0B, down 29% QoQ and 31.6% YoY due to lower inflation and interest rates.

• Net fee income increased 25–28% sequentially, with brokerage and asset management contributing 33% of total.

• Efficiency ratio rose to 64.3% in 3Q24, mainly due to lower financial margin and severance charges.

• Operating expenses rose 2% QoQ due to severance; excluding these, expenses would have declined nearly 5%.

• Loan loss provisions contracted 22%, reflecting healthy asset quality; cost of risk at 2.7%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY24 ROE guidance reaffirmed at 15%; management expects profitability rebound in 4Q24.

• Peso loans for 2024 expected to expand 70–80% in real terms, up from prior 40% guidance.

• NPL ratio expected to remain below 1% for 2024.

• CET1 ratio projected to close the year between 16–18%.

• 2025 macro assumptions: GDP growth 4–5%, inflation 30%, interest rates 30–31%.