Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered Q4 2025 results within guidance, with net loss narrowing to AR$19.5B from AR$54.2B in Q3, supported by margin recovery and lower funding costs despite elevated credit stress and peak volatility during Argentina's political transition.

• Corporate loans drove portfolio expansion, outpacing the system with 8% QoQ and 37% YoY growth, while retail balances declined due to stricter underwriting and risk management.

• Asset quality reflected peak stress, with NPL ratio rising to 5.0% and cost of risk peaking at 10.6%, but collection trends and digital engagement improved toward year-end.

• Strategic focus on digital transformation, ecosystem integration, and scaling digital platforms, with over 70% of transactions now digital and cross-selling initiatives advancing.

• Non-banking subsidiaries, including IOL InvertirOnline, diversified earnings and expanded assets under management.

Financial highlights

• Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year, led by a 25% QoQ increase in corporate lending; loan book up 172% since Mar-24.

• Attributable net loss of AR$19.5B in Q4, a significant improvement from Q3; FY25 net loss was AR$48.6B.

• Net financial income reached AR$246B, up 82% sequentially; NIM rebounded to 18.8%-19% from 10.8%-11% in Q3.

• Personnel expenses declined 5.6%-6% sequentially and 12.8%-15% YoY; efficiency ratio improved to 60.6%.

• Deposits declined 6% QoQ but rose 23% YoY; USD deposits up 42% YoY.

Outlook and guidance

• Expect real loan growth of 25%-30% in 2026, led by corporate lending; deposit growth at 20%-25%.

• NPL ratio expected between 5%-6% for 2026, peaking in Q1; cost of risk projected at 5.5%-6.5%.

• NIM guidance at 14%-16%; CET1 ratio expected to end 2026 between 11%-13%.

• Full-year ROE guidance of 4%-9%, with sequential improvement expected as margins recover.

• Macro assumptions: 2026 inflation 22.4%, FX at 1,750, GDP growth +3.2%.