Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Third quarter 2025 was marked by severe macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, including high real interest rates, record reserve requirements, and pre-election volatility, resulting in a net loss of ARS 50.3 billion.

• Loan growth remained solid at 8% in real terms, led by corporates, while retail declined due to tightened origination standards.

• Deposit growth was strong, up 15% quarter-on-quarter and over 40% year-on-year, with US dollar deposits reaching record highs.

• Asset quality weakened, with NPL ratio rising to 3.9%, mainly in retail, and early commercial loan stress emerging.

• Strategic initiatives advanced, including digital innovation (SuperApp), expansion into mining and oil & gas, and a new sponsorship with the national soccer team.

Financial highlights

• Net financial income declined 43% sequentially due to increased funding costs and compressed spreads.

• Peso NIM dropped to 11.7% and total NIM to 10.8%, down sharply from prior quarters.

• Funding costs rose by ARS 56 billion, and higher reserve requirements negatively impacted liquidity by ARS 21 billion.

• Net fee income rose 7-8.8% QoQ, supported by brokerage and banking fees.

• CET1 ratio reached 13.2% at quarter end, rising to 14.5% in October.

Outlook and guidance

• Real loan growth for 2025 expected at 35%-40%, led by corporates, with retail resuming as disposable income improves.

• Deposits forecast to grow 30%-35%, with further gains in USD balances.

• NPL ratio expected between 4.7%-5.1%; net cost of risk projected at 5.8%-6.4%.

• NIM anticipated between 15%-18% for the year, but remains pressured by high rates and reserve requirements.

• ROE for 2025 expected between -5% and 0%; for 2026, high single digits or low double digits, with a medium-term target of 15%-20%.