HelloFresh (HFG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strategic focus shifted to profitability and efficiency over volume growth, with a comprehensive efficiency program initiated in H2 2024 and extended through 2026, targeting improved margins and customer experience for both Meal Kits and RTE segments.

• Revenue for 2024 was €7.66 billion, up 0.9% year-over-year in constant currency, driven by higher average order values despite lower order volumes.

• AEBITDA reached €399.4 million in 2024, at the upper end of guidance, reflecting strong profitability progress.

• Marketing strategy pivoted to target higher-value customers, reducing expenses and order volumes but increasing average order value.

• Diversification efforts underway with new ventures in pet food, premium butchery, and health supplements, aiming for a broader digital FMCG footprint.

Financial highlights

• FY 2024 revenue grew 0.9% in constant currency to €7.66 billion; Q4 revenue declined 2.7% year-over-year due to stricter marketing spend.

• FY AEBITDA was €399.4 million (9.8% margin for Meal Kits, 1.6% for RTE); Q4 AEBITDA margin increased for all product groups.

• Free cash flow for FY 2024 was €73.2 million, with FCF per diluted share at €0.42, stable year-over-year.

• CapEx reduced from €305.8 million in 2023 to €166.1 million in 2024, with further reductions planned.

• 140 million orders delivered in 2024, down 4% from 2023, reflecting a focus on higher-value customers.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue expected to decrease by 3%-8% in constant currency as efficiency measures continue; Meal Kits revenue projected to decline by over 10%, while RTE is expected to grow low to mid-teens percentage.

• Adjusted EBIT before impairment targeted at €200–250 million, a 65% increase at midpoint; Adjusted EBITDA outlook €450–500 million.

• Free cash flow per diluted share expected to more than double from current €0.42.

• CapEx expected to remain broadly stable in 2025 and reduced below €150 million in 2026.

• Efficiency program extended through 2026 to support profitability and cash flow growth.