HelloFresh (HFG) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strategic focus shifted to profitability and cash flow over volume growth, with an efficiency reset and program initiated in H2 2024 and extended through 2026.

• Revenue for 2024 was approximately €7.66–7.7 billion, up 0.9% in constant currency, driven by higher average order values despite lower order volumes.

• AEBITDA reached about €399 million in 2024, at the upper end of guidance, with Q4 margins up across all product groups.

• Marketing strategy pivoted to target higher-value customers, reducing expenses and order volumes but increasing average order value.

• Diversification efforts continue with expansion into pet food, premium butchery, and health supplements, though these remain small.

Financial highlights

• FY 2024 revenue grew 0.9% in constant currency to €7.66 billion; Q4 revenue declined 2.7% year-on-year due to stricter marketing spend.

• AEBITDA margin for 2024 was 5.2%, with Meal Kits at 9.8% and RTE at 1.6%; Q4 Meal Kits margin at 14.1%, RTE at 5.3%.

• Free cash flow for FY 2024 was €73.2 million, with per diluted share at €0.42, stable year-on-year.

• CapEx for 2024 was €166 million, reduced from €305.8 million in 2023, with further reductions planned.

• Group contribution margin for FY 2024 was 25.8%, improving to 27.1% in Q4.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue expected to decrease by 3%–8% in constant currency due to efficiency focus and high-value customer targeting.

• Meal Kits revenue projected to decline by over 10% in 2025; RTE expected to grow low to mid-teens percent.

• Targeting AEBIT (pre-impairment) of €200–250 million for 2025, a ~65% increase at midpoint; AEBITDA outlook for 2025 set at €450–500 million.

• Free cash flow per diluted share expected to more than double from current €0.42.

• Efficiency program extended through 2026 to support profitability and cash flow growth.