Investec Group (INVP) Q4 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying client franchises advanced strategic priorities, driving revenue growth despite challenging conditions.

• Diversified business model and strong capital and liquidity levels supported results within financial target ranges.

• Year-to-date performance benefited from client acquisition, net inflows in funds under management, and higher average advances.

Financial highlights

• Pre-provision adjusted operating profit expected between £1,013m and £1,076m, up 5.0%–12.0% year-over-year (FY2024: £963.6m).

• Adjusted EPS forecast at 75.0p–81.2p (FY2024: 78.1p), or 4.0% below to 4.0% above prior year.

• Net core loans rose 4.7% annualized to £32.2bn, with growth in private client and South African corporate lending.

• Customer deposits increased 4.8% annualized to £31.2bn.

• South African Wealth and Investment funds under management grew 14.5% to £24bn, with strong discretionary inflows partly offset by non-discretionary outflows.

Outlook and guidance

• Group ROE projected at 13.0%–14.0%, and ROTE at 15.5%–16.5%, both within medium-term targets.

• Cost-to-income ratio forecasted below previous 53.8% as revenue outpaces costs.

• Credit loss ratio expected within 25bps–45bps through-the-cycle range; credit quality remains strong.

• Adjusted EPS guidance is between 4% below to 4% above prior year.

• Group adjusted operating profit before tax expected at £888m–£956m (FY2024: £884.5m).